Aug 6, 2009 6:54 pm US/Central
Reality Check: Dismal Polling For Tim Pawlenty
ST. PAUL (WCCO) ―
Governor Tim Pawlenty made a stop Thursday at Farm Fest, the annual celebration of all things agriculture in southern Minnesota.
But the governor's preparing for trips next week to Florida and Puerto Rico for what some say is a possible run for president.
Even though
national polls rank him very low in the 2012 race, it may not matter.
In fact, if early candidate polls were actually predictors of the next election, the 2008 Republican nominee would have been someone else.
It's TRUE.
In 2007, N.Y. Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the preferred candidate for 44 percent of Republicans, and Senator John McCain by only 20 percent.
And in the November 2006 Gallup Poll, two years before the election, Barack Obama was a distant second to Hillary Clinton.
And that's NOT THE WHOLE STORY.
The obscure Arkansas Governor who later won the White House didn't make a dent in the early polls.
In the October 1991 Gallup Poll, N.Y. Governor Mario Cuomo was the odds-on-favorite, when 31 percent of Democrats wanted him and only 3 percent favored Bill Clinton.
And what about the peanut farmer from Georgia?
Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter barely registered at 1 percent among Democrats in
October of 1975.
Minnesota's Hubert Humphrey was thought to be the most viable candidate, at 23 percent.
Here's the REALITY.
Early polls -- and what it portends for Pawlenty, if he runs for President?
Nothing.
And that's the point.
Early polls mostly reflect name ID, and most Americans don't know who Pawlenty is.
To check the resources for this Reality Check click on the links below.
Gallup: Clinton's Lead in Historical Perspective
CBS News: A 2012 GOP Frontrunner? Not So Fast!
Gallup: Romney Edges Palin, Huckabee in Early 2012 GOP Test
Gallup: Giuliani Solidifies Lead in Republican Nomination Poll
Google Books: The Gallup Poll, by Alec M. Gallup, Frank Newport
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