Politics

Good Question: Does the VP Pick Matter?

(WCCO) It is the biggest parlor game in political circles right now. Who will be the nominees for vice president? But perhaps the more important question is: Does the number two pick even matter?

"It's interesting, yes," said Eric Ostermeier, Ph.D., J.D., author of the Smart Politics blog at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs. "Is it a tell of what's going to happen in November? Not at all."

But according to an August 2008 CBS News poll, 30 percent of voters say the vice president selection will have a great deal of influence of their decision on who to vote for. That's up from 16 percent in 2004.

"Is there any indication when people step in to cast their ballot, that they give this a second thought?" asked WCCO's Jason DeRusha.

"Not normally," said Ostermeier.

However, there are some factors in the 2008 election that may make the number two slot more important than normal. Ostermeier said the fact that both candidates are looking at people with executive leadership experience indicates things are different.

"In just two nominees since 1952 has the vice presidential nominee been a governor," he said.

In his blog, he explained that those nominees were Spiro Agnew in 1968 (and 1972) and Sargent Shriver in 1972.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius have all been mentioned as possible vice presidential nominees.

"It may be important this time for both candidates; Obama for his perceived inexperience and for McCain because he's seen as a little too seasoned," said Ostermeier.

Interestingly, the theory of picking a vice president in order to win that person's home state doesn't hold up, according to Ostermeier.

"About 40 percent have failed to do it since 1908," he said.

There's also the issue of McCain's age (he'll be 72 on the day he's reportedly going to announce his vice presidential selection), which may have people more interested in his number two.

The Gallup Poll has found evidence of a bump in the polling data after the vice president pick is announced.

"Recent non-incumbent presidential candidates have received a boost … ranging from 3 to 9 points (and averaging 5 points). This 'vice presidential bounce' is separate from and precedes the usual convention bounce," according to Gallup.

"It's a lot of talk, it furthers the story, it keeps people interested, keeps viewers interested. And what else is there to talk about before the convention unless a candidate has a big blunder," said Ostermeier.

 

(© MMVIII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

---