Politics

Ad Wars Show Minn. Still Considered A Swing State

ST. PAUL (AP) ― There's no escape by watching celebrity chef Rachael Ray. Oprah's no refuge, either. And Minnesota Vikings football? It offers way too many eyeballs for the presidential campaigns to pass up.

An escalating ad battle is playing out between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama on Minnesota television, suggesting the state and its 10 electoral votes aren't nailed down.

By this weekend, McCain and Obama will have run more than $3 million in ads this year on Twin Cities television. They're closing in on 6,000 commercials between them, with two-thirds coming since Labor Day.

Since then, McCain has aired four times as many spots in the area as Obama, according to an Associated Press examination of advertising files at local stations and the dominant cable provider.

But the ad race is tightening: Obama dramatically ramped up his presence beginning last Friday, signing up for more than 700 spots and roughly $600,000 worth of time through next Monday. McCain, who purchases his time on a slightly different schedule, has been spending more than $300,000 a week lately. He appears to be bumping that up, nearly doubling his purchase for next week compared to this week at one station, records available Thursday show.

Many of McCain's recent ads are jointly financed by the Republican National Committee, which requires McCain to broaden their message beyond Obama and make mention of congressional Democrats.

Minnesota is a rare battleground where McCain is outspending Obama in ads, said Evan Tracey, who tracks commercials as head of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group.

"Right now they've got two resources: They've got what little money they've got compared to Obama and they've got the candidate's time," Tracey said. "And as long as they're putting both of those things to work in Minnesota it tells me they see something in their polls that gives them hope or reason to think Minnesota is still in play."

McCain is due in Minnesota on Friday for a town hall-style forum at Lakeville South High School. Obama, who was last in the state in early August, is dispatching his wife, Michelle, for a couple of Minnesota events on Monday.

A few weeks ago, McCain pulled even with Obama in independent Minnesota polling, but the Illinois senator has since regained an advantage in the state.

Ben Golnik, McCain's regional campaign manager, said the Arizona senator is coming here again and keeping a steady TV presence because he still believes Minnesota is winnable. Golnik bases that in part on the state's large percentage of independent voters and ticket splitters.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a top McCain surrogate, said the campaign "would be wise" to continue to compete in Minnesota.

"It's a state where Democrats have an advantage. It's not impossible or implausible for a Republican to win here," Pawlenty said. "It has the potential to swing in the closing weeks."

Neither Golnik nor Obama state director Jeff Blodgett would discuss ad strategy in the state. And both put more emphasis on local organizing efforts geared toward turning out voters on Election Day.

"It's a noisy time on television right now with all the campaigns. Most people barely tune into political advertising," Blodgett said. "A much more effective conversation is one you have on the doorstep with a fellow neighbor or a citizen volunteer about the election."

Obama's recent run-up in Minnesota ad spending shouldn't be viewed as a sign he's worried about losing here, said Democratic strategist Buck Humphrey, who ran Al Gore's 2000 campaign in Minnesota.

"If it was a first-tier battleground they would have put up a lot more in September," Humphrey said. "What they're trying to do now is really shore things up in states like Minnesota that were kind of baby blue as opposed to the deep dark blue."

Experts don't discount the sizable ad buys.

"The vast majority still perceive the presidential candidates through their portrayal on the small screen," said John Rash, a Minneapolis ad executive who teaches a mass media and politics course at the University of Minnesota. "It's the images they portray both on the nightly news and the campaign commercials that provide the visual information that so many voters use to make their decision."

Buying time on Twin Cities television gives the campaigns an arm into western Wisconsin, competitive territory in a state both candidates also covet. The campaigns also have invested in ads on Duluth stations, which reach northern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.

Not all advertising is equal. The campaigns have dropped as much as $15,000 to run ads during Minnesota Vikings football games and as little as $20 to catch night owls watching "Oprah" reruns.

On cable, where ad money goes further, McCain has aired ads most often lately on Fox News Channel. His ads are also seen on Lifetime and TNT. Obama's cable spots are most frequently on MSNBC and TNT, but he's also run them on MTV, ESPN and the History Channel.

(© 2008 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)