Jan 4, 2008 10:57 am US/Central
Pat Kessler's Blog From Iowa Caucuses
DES MOINES, Iowa (WCCO) ―
SPEAKING OF MELLENCAMP
On caucus eve, Wednesday night, John Edwards held a giant
rally in Des Moines
... a kind of fire-up-the-troops get-out-the-vote rally.
Among the celebrities present for Edwards ... James Denton,
one of the stars of the television program "Desperate Housewives."
But the highlight of the event was singer John Mellencamp,
wearing jeans and buttoned black jacket ... with acoustic guitar only, played a
two-song mini concert.
Mellencamp sounded great, animated and passionate, his voice
gravelly and growly.
At the CBS Newspath compound, where we edited our daily
pieces for WCCO -V, the Mellencamp concert was fed live, as is the practice for
all the candidate events.
About two minutes into Mellencamp's killer acoustic
version of "Little Pink Houses" the sound disappeared, replaced
with a hum.
Great disappointment in our room ... sound returned as
he ended the song.
Second song, same thing ... sound disappears about two
minutes in.
Apparently there was concern about bootlegs.
It's common practice at music concerts to allow media to
videotape and record the artist for news purposes ... but the promoter then
commonly yanks the plug to kill the sound ... thus preventing illegal re-sales
of copyrighted material.
If that is what happened here ... disappointing, but
understandable.
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Who Is The
Celebrity Surrogate Winner In Iowa?
Much
talk in Iowa
this morning about what the caucus results mean: who won and who lost.
But
some of the talk is about the Battle
of the Celebrities.
Obama
shook up the race when he brought Oprah Winfrey to Iowa to campaign for him. Oprah,
arguably the most popular woman in America, drew crowds of 30,000 ...
and loads of attention
Hillary
Clinton relied on husband and former President Bill Clinton. He is
arguably the most popular Democrat in America ... and he fired up party
activists.
Huckabee's
secret weapon: Chuck Norris, the martial arts television and movie star ...
who campaigned across Iowa and starred in creative, funny, attention
getting TV commercials for Huckabee ("My plan to secure the
borders? Two words: Chuck Norris.")
For
John Edwards: Singers John Mellencamp, Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Brown.
The
Winners: Oprah Winfrey and Chuck Norris. Not even close.
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Why The Losers Are
Just As Important As The Winners
Iowa's Caucuses shake it up, and
shake it out.
It's
important to watch how the losers react to the Iowa Caucus results.
Hillary
Clinton finishes third, but she's got a formidable national campaign
organization and a fundraising network that keeps her in the race.
Even
so, her bronze medal finish is a blow ... and we watch to see how she
reacts.
But
remember, Bill Clinton finished in third place in Iowa
back in 1992 ... then did well in New
Hampshire ... calling himself "The Comeback
Kid."
John
Edwards ... a second place 30 percent finish ... is it good enough to go
on? He's bunched up closely with Clinton who finished at 29
percent. The national story may be Obama first ... and "What
happened to Hillary?" Not Edwards strong second place finish.
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Iowa Aftermath
So what does it all mean?
The
Huck-a-Boom, and Obamania.
What
Iowa voters
may have indicated is that they want change. Huckabee and Obama share
that campaign message ... that by electing them, voters are supporting change
in Washington.
Huckabee
calls himself an outsider ... so does Obama.
Huckabee,
like Bill Clinton before him, is a former Arkansas governor who says he has the common
man touch ... and demonstrated a folksy, down home humor that delighted
audiences.
Obama
drew large crowds in Iowa, enthusiastic and
young and racially diverse ... and won among voters who said they are tired of Washington same old same
old.
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8:00 a.m.
Hotel
Lobby, Des Moines
At
the Airport Radisson, looking for newspapers and coffee. Watching Iowa
Caucus returns late into the night ... described by national pundits as "stunning".
Headline,
Des Moines Register: OBAMA, HUCKABEE WIN FIRST BIG TEST
Reporters,
photographers, producers, technicians gathering here ... luggage, cabs,
mini-vans heading for the airport ... many on their way to New Hampshire.
Word
from the airport: get there early, traffic is heavy as the media departs
en masse.
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11:34 p.m. Des Moines
We've cleaned up our workspace at CBS Newspath, and said goodbye to our friends from Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Omaha.
Also to reporters from Eurovision, Univision, and NHK Japan.
CBS provides us with world-class technology to follow the candidates... who are getting more and more difficult to follow every election year.
In Iowa this year, I noticed there are many, many more cameras and reporters on the candidates than ever before... sometimes more reporters than voters.
With security, logistics, distances and 24-hour TV.... it's become a much different game.
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11:31 p.m. Des Moines
When last we blogged, we were caught in a crush of caucus goers at the Merrill Middle School.
Interesting to note: At the Democratic caucuses we attended, the order of preference was Obama, Clinton, Edwards.
That may be exactly how it stacks up on the democratic side when all is said and done.
For Republicans at our Middle School Caucus, it was all Huckabee and Romney.
And in fact, the final numbers were all Huck-a-boom.
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7:52pm Des Moines
Coincidence:
Walking into Merrill Middle School tonight, we encountered Minneapolis Mayor RT Rybak, Mrs Rybak and their daughter.
Told us he's in Iowa for Obama... made a speech to supporters with the mayor of Des Moines.. gathering tips for the upcoming Minnesota caucuses in Februrary.
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7:40 pm Merrill Middle School Caucus
Des Moines Iowa Compared to the raucous caucusing of the Democrats at the Merrill Middle School, the Republicans by comparison are positively civilized, and much quieter. Part of this is because GOP caucus rules arse much different.
In one Republican caucus at Merrill, in the school's lecture hall (do middle schools actually have lecture halls?) is host to about 200 Republican activists.
Under Republican rules, there is a simple straw ballot, on paper, and private.
Unlike Democrats they do not have to stand up and publicly declare their loyalty to a single candidate. That does not mean there is not passion.
Supporters of Republican candidates made their cases... why Thompson is a true conservative. Why Huckabee can win. Why Romney is best equipped to understand the issues. Paper ballots distributed, marked, and collected.
These poll numbers are sent to party headquarters and tabulated.... and we should know fairly soon who 'won' and who 'lost.'
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7:22 pm Merrill Middle School Caucus
This middle school tonight is home to Republican and Democratic caucuses ... spread out in different parts of the school.
Here's what's happening in the Democratic caucus in the school cafeteria: There are 372 people jammed into this room, and under caucus rules candidates must collect at least 15% of support from the people attending in order to be 'viable'.
Less than that and the candidate is out.
That means a candidate must get at least 56 people to support him or her.
Here are the candidates in this room who are 'viable': Obama, Edwards, Clinton.
Not viable: Biden, Dodd, Kucinich
I'm now heading to a Republican caucus, which has much different rules.
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7:16 pm At Merrill Middle School
The crowds are so big here.... caucus organizers are stretching the rules just a little bit.
Normally, you must be inside your caucus room to be an official part of the caucus. Tonight... because of the long lines... if a person is IN LINE to register when the caucus officially begins, he or she will be counted as official.
I am in the school cafeteria, where the tables have been removed to accommodate all the people... estimated to be about 400. Across the hall is the gymnasium, where there are hundreds more from a different precinct.
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7:06 pm Des Moines Iowa Caucus Night At Merrill Middle School
We arrived at Merrill Middle School just before 7pm... the official caucus starting time.
To my surprise, there are hundreds and hundreds -- perhaps a couple thousand --- caucus goers.
The lines are so long to get inside.... we had to fight our way past the crowds lining the hallways.
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6:30 pm Heading for the caucus ...
OK, we know that the Iowa caucuses are important, not just because they are first but also because of the impact of Iowa on the winners and losers.
But how many people actually attend caucuses? Not many.
According to the Iowa Secretary of State, there are roughly 2 million registered voters in the Hawkeye State :
607,034 Republicans
638,573 Democrats
809,236 No Party
How many go to caucuses? About 6%.
Tonight, turnout is expected to be higher than normal... Party leaders say 125,000 Democrats 85,000 Republicans will show up.
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6:28 pm
Here are some Iowa numbers to think about: The Des Moines Register reports that the presidential candidates in Iowa-- all 16 of them from both parties-- spent a total of $40 million on their campaigns. $40 million. Among other items that money bought.... 50,000 television and radio ads running virtually non stop. At some point, do ads really matter?
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12:30 pm On the road to Patterson, Iowa
Beautiful farm country...winding roads, classic barns and modern agriculture operations. It's a great way to see Iowa politics.... up close.
Mike Huckabee has a big presence out here.... photographer Brad Earley goes the extra mile ( no pun intended ) to find a (kind of) safe spot on the side of the road... dodging big rigs and farm equipment. There's a very large Huckabee campaign sign posted on the edge of a farm.. very large, 8 feet by 6 feet.
And next to it, a hand made 12 foot high cross. Huckabee has run a remarkable campaign, with little money, largely on the force of his personality.
But the former Republican Arkansas governor is an ordained minister, and has the support of a large number of Iowa's evangelical Christians. If he wins the Iowa caucus, that may be part of the reason why.
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12:00 p.m. Winterset, Iowa
Birthplace of John Wayne, southwestern Iowa.
In Madison County ... home to world famous Madison County bridges.
Quintessential Midwest small town.
At the fountain in the back of Montross Drug Store, political debate continues.
Iowans are certainly tired of all the talking, the TV ads, the phone calls ... but in Winterset there are still undecided voters ... just hours before the caucuses are set to begin.
Lady behind the counter is for Hillary, but will not attend the caucus. I ask one lunch-goer who she is supporting.
Answer, laughing: "None of your business." Good for her.
At the back table ... a Republican who may vote Democrat tonight ... says he's going to 'flip a coin.'
Two others are Romney supporters.
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6:30 a.m.
The barrage of television ads continues ... every available moment on Des Moines TV is filled with political ads.
Obama, Clinton, Romney, Edwards, Thompson, Huckabee, Paul, Biden.
Barack, Hillary and Edwards airing last minute appeals, thanking Iowa for its patience and its vote.
Reportedly, the candidates have spent $40 million on 50,000 ads in Iowa.
Estimated number of Republicans and Democrats who will attend tonight's caucuses: 200,000.
7:00 a.m.
Headline in the Des Moines Register, banner above the fold: NOW, YOU DECIDE
9:00 a.m.
John Edwards reportedly campaigned all night long, hitting small coffee parties.
Changed this morning from his trademark jeans and blue blazer to dark suit, white shirt, blue tie for more campaigning.
9:30 a.m.
We've left Des Moines and headed for southwestern Iowa. Looking for real people away from the crush of the media .... which is omnipresent downtown.
In Des Moines, satellite trucks everywhere ... news vans, reporters, cameras on many corners.
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9:03 a.m.
The Iowa caucuses are the official kickoff of the 2008 presidential campaign, but don't tell that to the people here in Des Moines, or Mason City, or Cedar Rapids, or Cambridge, or Waterloo.
In fact, don't tell it to anyone here in the Hawkeye State.
The presidential campaign has been underway for almost a year now, up close and personal here, and after Iowa there's another 10 months of campaigning to go in the rest of the country.
The signs of the campaign are everywhere: volunteers hanging signs on light poles, honking cars festooned with banners, cadres of political workers door-knocking, non-stop television commercials.
Unusual appearances: Martial artist Chuck Norris for Mike Huckabee ("Huck and Chuck") ... singer John Mellencamp singing for John Edwards ("Ain't that America") ... Hillary Clinton on David Letterman Show after a two-month Letterman absence because of the national writer's strike ("Well, all good things must end").
The race is said to be too close to call ... a three-way race among Democrats (Obama, Clinton, Edwards), and a tight two-way contest on the Republican side (Huckabee, Romney).
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