Politics

ST. PAUL (AP) ― When it comes to presidential politics, Minnesota treats Republicans like Lucy baits Charlie Brown with the football: The state yanks its 10 electoral votes away just when the GOP thinks it will finally get them.

Republican John McCain has Minnesota in his sights -- undeterred by his party's eight straight losses here, the longest GOP drought anywhere. McCain returns Thursday to Minnesota for a town hall meeting and a major fundraiser as a November fight looms with Barack Obama.

The town hall event was billed as a "pre-ticketed event with undecided voters" at 7 p.m. at the Landmark Center in downtown St. Paul, not far from the Xcel Energy Center where Republicans will nominate McCain in September. Tickets for the 5:30 p.m. private fundraiser at the Minneapolis Hilton start at $1,000 per person.

McCain is betting that his maverick image, his hearty support from the two-term governor and his party's decision to hold its national convention here can swing the race his way. Strategists from both parties give the edge to Democratic candidate Barack Obama, but say McCain can't be counted out.

"Is it a tossup? No. Do the Republicans have a chance? Yes. It's never a tossup in Minnesota. We always come from behind, but that doesn't mean we can't win," said veteran GOP consultant Tom Mason, an adviser to Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Norm Coleman. "This is an unusual open seat. You can throw the book out on a lot of things."

Democratic activist Jeff Blodgett, who is heading Obama's Minnesota campaign and helped engineer the late-Sen. Paul Wellstone's two victories, agreed that the state is in play.

"It's an absolute must-win state for any Democrat who wants to get into the White House," Blodgett said. "It's not one that can be taken for granted at all and must be treated as any other major battleground state."

No Republican has carried Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972, although the last two elections were closer calls than Democrats are used to.

Despite the state's reputation as a Democratic stronghold, Minnesota voters are a fickle bunch with ticket-splitting tendencies. In the 1990s, they paired the liberal Wellstone with the conservative Rod Grams in the U.S. Senate. They also gambled on ex-pro wrestler Jesse Ventura for one term as a third-party governor. Two years ago, they let Democratic Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar and the Republican Pawlenty share the winner's circle.

Obama's presumed advantage is based on a May poll that gave him a double-digit lead, his big win in the state's Feb. 5 precinct caucuses that drew nearly triple the past Democratic turnout record, and growing public dissatisfaction with Bush.

Earlier this month, more than 30,000 people swarmed St. Paul's Xcel Energy Center to hear Obama declare victory in the race for the Democratic nomination. Many resorted to watching the speech on jumbo monitors outside the arena, which will play host to the Republican National Convention in September.

Democratic strategist John Blackshaw said the large crowds Obama has drawn on each visit and to party caucuses bode well for him.

"It's all about turnout, turnout, turnout," Blackshaw said. "They have the most impressive ground game that we've seen in politics ever."

For McCain to pull an upset, the experts say he'll have to blunt his expected losses in urban precincts and in the union-heavy pocket of northeastern Minnesota. He'll also need to run up large margins in growing exurban areas south of the Twin Cities, which were critical to Pawlenty's win in 2006.

Then there's Pawlenty himself. Mentioned as a potential McCain running mate, Pawlenty's appearance on the ticket would jolt the race in Minnesota.

Pawlenty didn't win a majority of the vote in either gubernatorial race, only pluralities against multiple challengers. His selection could cut both ways -- firing up Democrats eager to hand Pawlenty a defeat on his home turf and energizing Republicans who aren't passionate about McCain.

McCain finished a distant second to Mitt Romney in the Minnesota caucuses.

Pawlenty has been downplaying his chances of ending up on the ticket.

"Of course it's an honor to be mentioned and to have your name included in that, but I don't expect that it will be offered," he said Monday at the state Capitol.

Grams stayed neutral in the primary season and said his former Senate Republican colleague still has work to do to win his vote. Grams said he's bothered most by McCain's support for a cap-and-trade approach to cut greenhouse gases.

"It'll be a lot harder for him to win not only in Minnesota but in the country if he can't generate enthusiasm among the ranks of conservatives," Grams said. "Conservatives like me are not going to vote for Barack Obama, but could a lot of them stay home? That could be."

 

 

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