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Oct 12, 2009 10:54 pm US/Central
Good Question: Does Early Snow Mean Long Winter?
(WCCO)
It would be expected if we lived north of the Arctic Circle. Up where polar bears and ptarmigan are preparing for their winter rituals, namely survival. It's where temperatures are already falling well below freezing and the ice pack is growing again.
But in a state that prides itself with an innate ability to cope with winter, October snow scenes in Minnesota are not as common as you might think.
In fact, Twin Cities residents haven't seen a measurable snowfall this early in October in seven years. So why is it that over the past three days Minnesotans awoke to a fresh blanket of white?
Scenes that will conjure a rich vocabulary of Inuit words to explain nature's fall phenomena. Words like "anijo", meaning, what's on the ground. The Inuit word, "qanik" describes what is falling from the sky.
It's without a doubt quite common for those words to be uttered this time of year in villages scattered all across the Arctic. But for the hearty inhabitants, winter starts early and we're not even to Halloween.
"We've had measurable snow in September," observed Mark Seeley, a climatologist with the University of Minnesota Extension Service.
After studying 126 years of weather records, he's an expert on what historic weather patterns can mean for the present.
"About one out of four times an October snow is a precursor to a snowy winter. So there really isn't a historical correlation you can hang your hat on," said Seeley.
Seeley admits there has been the occasional exception, such as what followed an October snowfall during Laura Ingalls Wilder's time growing up on the banks of Plum Creek.
After that October surprise, the snow just kept piling up, month after month after month.
Seeley points to the winter of 1880-81, calling that October snow, "a precursor to what's arguably the worst case for the Twin Cities area, because we ended up with 110 inches of snow that winter and it started with that snow in 1880."
That was nearly 130 years ago. Let's look at a more recent October blast. Who will ever forget the legendary Halloween blizzard of 1991?
When the three day storm was over it sealed fall's fate, dropping some 2 feet of snow over the Twin Cities and nearly 3 feet in the Arrowhead.
According to Seeley, "we had a lot of thaw periods after that, so we had a lot of, the loss of that snow was phenomenal. But it came back and hit us again later in winter."
That winter ended with 84 inches of total snowfall, half of which fell in the month of November.
Yet just seeing lawns covered in snow this early in the season has a certain psychological effect on us all. But for our wildlife it can upset their natural fall patterns.
"Whether its hibernation or migration or whatever their seasonal habit is, I think it does tweak that," said Seeley.
So don't read too much into this October surprise. Instead, take it as a signal to tie-up loose ends and get those fall chores done. Odds are that what fell over the past few days has no bearing on the severity of winter -- only that it's coming.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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